What Is Australia's Recession Risk in 2025? A Realistic Assessment
Australia has not had a technical recession since 1991. But with per-capita GDP falling for six consecutive quarters, th…
Economic Policy
The budget, tax, trade, banking and the big decisions shaping the economy.
Australia–China Trade: How the Relationship Has Evolved and What It Means for Growth
China remains Australia's largest trading partner by a significant margin. The trade relationship went through a severe …
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Federal Budget 2025–26: Winners, Losers, and What It Really Means for the Economy
The federal budget delivered a second consecutive surplus, but the headline number masks significant fiscal pressures bu…
Immigration and the Australian Economy: Separating the Evidence from the Noise
Immigration has become one of the most politically charged economic debates in Australia. We cut through the noise with …
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Big Four Banks: Record Profits, Rising Scrutiny, and What It Means for the Economy
The Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ continue to generate extraordinary profits. We examine where those profits …
Stage 3 Tax Cuts: The Economic Impact 12 Months On
The modified Stage 3 tax cuts delivered more benefit to lower and middle income earners than the original design. What h…
Iron Ore: Australia's $130 Billion Export and Why Its Price Matters to Everyone
Iron ore is Australia's largest single export and the most important commodity for federal budget revenues. Here is what…
The Australian Dollar in 2025: What Drives It and Where It's Heading
The AUD/USD exchange rate affects everything from import prices to export competitiveness. Here is a comprehensive look …
Buy Now, Pay Later: Australia's New Regulations and What They Mean for Consumers
BNPL products have been used by millions of Australians without the protections that apply to credit cards. New regulati…
Consumer Confidence: Why It Matters and What the Current Readings Are Telling Us
Consumer confidence surveys are one of the most widely cited economic indicators. Here is how to read them properly — an…
The NDIS Cost Blowout: Understanding Australia's Most Expensive Policy Challenge
NDIS annual costs are approaching $50 billion and growing faster than any other area of government spending. Here is a c…
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Economic Policy Research
All research →Australian Economic Outlook 2025–26
Our flagship 52-page annual report covering the full macroeconomic picture: GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, the labour market, housing, trade, and fiscal…
View researchFederal Budget Deep Dive 2025–26
A 38-page sector-by-sector analysis of the 2025–26 federal budget. Goes beyond the headlines to examine the structural fiscal position, the NDIS trajectory, def…
View researchBig Four Banks: Sector Analysis Report 2025
A 34-page analysis of Australia's major banks — CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ. Covers net interest margin trends, capital adequacy, mortgage competition, bad debt …
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